[MD] Choosing Chance

[markhsmit]

Hi Arlo, Craig, Andre, ...,

I've been following this and thought I'd jump in since
the chances of my not doing so decreased with time.

Chance can be a useful concept to describe how one sees
the universe.  The issue when discussing it, is that you
can't point to it.  Where does chance reside, is it under a
rock someplace?  In the same way, where does chance
begin and where does it end?  If we can predict, does that
mean that chance is not involved?  Is it a matter of how
well we can predict?  The chances of us dying are pretty
high based on statistics, does that mean that chance
is taken out of that situation?  

The chances of a coin toss landing heads or tails can
be calculated, but to do so requires the tosser to not
have influence on its toss.  That removal of the
observer from the situation is impossible.  Quantum
mechanics would say that by observing something
we influence it, so chance is taken out of everything
we observe.  If I toss a coin, where does chance come
in?  Is it while it is turning over in the air, or is that
preordained by the tosser and other physical things?
Does chance come in on our choice of how high and 
fast to spin the coin?  Let's say we change our minds
twelve times on how to toss it, is it by chance that we
settle on the twelfth one, or is that free will?  What is
making the decision on how to toss the coin, chance?

In my opinion, chance exists in every moment of 
everything, or it does not exist at all.  I prefer the
former.  So where does free will come in?  The free
will comes in on how we view the situation, what our
attitude is as observer.  It is that area of free will
which then drives the direction of the experience
of Chance.

IMHO, of course.

Mark







[Arlo] 
> Its relevance is that it must be so. 

[Craig, previously] 
>  Owww.  The old "it must be so argument".  The 2nd most irrefutable argument, 
> next to "you can't have a Red Ryder BB gun because you'll put your eye out!" 


[Arlo] 
Bad rhetoric 

[Craig] 
But accurate quotation. 
This has been a good exchange--worthy of summary in the archives. 
Although I can't think of any argument for your position, it is one that 
must be considered.  Perhaps Krimel (the chance expert) or Andre 
(who possibly has another viewpoint) can further the exchange. 
I do wonder about determining the probability of my choosing broccoli 
ice cream.  What if I can't think of a single possible instance where I would 
freely choose it over vanilla ice cream?  Why would anyone assign it any 
non-zero probability?  Because I'm always freely choosing vanilla??? 
What would Wittgenstein say?  


[Andre] 
> is this freedom in the MoQ sense? 
What is the distinction you're making between freedom "in the MoQ sense" 
& some other (give examples)? 

. 
[Andre] 
> Is it even freedom of choice? I can see a variety of cases: 
1) You are offered broccoli ice cream at $1 or vanilla at $2, 
but you have only $1. 
2) you prefer vanilla but it gives you a rash. 
3) you prefer vanilla but that means the other person is stuck with broccoli. 
4) you really want chocolate. 
5) you are bribed to take broccoli. 
6) you are warned not to take vanilla. 
7) there are no known bad consequences or cost to you 
in taking either vanilla or broccoli, there is plenty 
of each for everyone, you have a reasonable expectation 
as to how the vanilla and the broccoli each will taste, 
you've made no agreement constraining your choice, 
you like either vanilla or broccoli (or both), 
and so on. 
I think 7) is the case Arlo & I are considering. 
Craig  
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