[MD] Reading & Comprehension

[Krimel]

[John]
And the biggest problem I have with moronists is thinking that randomness
explains anything.

[Krimel]
I would like to think that puts you in a vanishingly small minority since
randomness and probability theory underlie virtually every aspect of modern
life. Even in basic Adam Smith capitalist economic theory it is spoken of as
the invisible hand. More modern versions of economics look at economics in
terms of game theory which looks are the distribution of probable outcomes
if rational agents pursue their own self interest. The story of John Nash,
one of the founders of game theory, is well known and bares remarkable
similarity to Pirsig's own biography, such as we have it. 

Interestingly, in an interview I heard recently, Nash acknowledged that a
significant flaw in game theory is the assumption that human agents act
rationally. That assumption was challenged by another Nobel prize winner in
economics, Daniel Kahneman. Although he is a psychologist Kahneman and his
collaborator Amos Treversky created the field of behavioral economics. They
assert that humans have a "sense" of probability. They see this as an innate
ability to calculate odds in much the same way as we can estimate time and
distance. They also note that while we are pretty good at it we fail
miserably in some very interesting ways. Dan Ariely's "Predictably
Irrational" provides a very accessible introduction by one of the leaders in
the field. 

It goes with out saying that the gambling industry, insurance and stock
market are all grounded in probability theory. Notice that the unregulated
hedge fund market that contributed so mightily to the recent economic
collapse what little more than a way of "hedging" market and insurance
losses on risky investments. Nicolas Taleb's "Black Swan" talks about this
sort of thing and helps one understand why betting on things that have low
probabilities of disastrous outcomes like offshore drilling and nuclear
power are such bad ideas.

If you find out you have cancer or need a serious operation your doctor will
explain your condition in terms of probability success or failure of
treatment or estimate your probability of living another month or year are
whatever. Politics, marketing, law enforcement, traffic control, the
transportation industry, shipping... Hell everything in the modern world
depends almost entirely on probability and statistics. 

Our scientific approach to the inorganic level quantum physics and
thermodynamics are rooted in probability. At the biological level it is
vital to any serious understanding of evolutionary theory and population
dynamics. At the social level so many variables are in play and the fields
so young that definitive statements are hard to make; but when they are they
are couched in probabilistic terms. In fact one could argue that all of
science is based on establishing the probability of causal effects gauged
against chance outcomes.

[John]
Tho I appreciated your penny-flipping attempt.

[Krimel]
Thanks 

[John]
Betterness isn't always apparent to the patterns being interrupted.  You
have to take the larger view.

[Krimel]
The larger view? Do you have any idea how long it would take to flip a
trillion pennies in a row? If you understood a bit about randomness and it
might give you a longer view.

[John]
And that's the key difference between a moronist and an awgi, the moronist
takes the tiny reductionist view, creating reality out of a random bits of
nothing, and the awgi sees the big picture.  For the bigger picture IS
betterness in the final analysis.

[Krimel]
It seems to me that the AWGI cult sees the value and future of the MoQ
through the lens of their own navels. They would eventual place any future
work in the field securely in the New Age section of your local books store.

In contrast what you call the moronist view sees the MoQ as contributing to
a metaphysical position that integrates all of the aforementioned aspects of
modern life. 

Sadly, "better" like "bigger" is entirely a relative term. 

By the way how deep would you guess your navel to be?