[MD] The MOQ's First Principle

[Case]

[Dan]
You can't be serious. Are you going to leave on a trip with an empty gas 
tank? Hedge your bets? How is being dead hedging a bet?

[Case]
I guess I really don't understand what you are getting at with this. It is
as though looking into this specific situation in detail you have decided
this guy was an idiot and deserved to die. As I mentioned previously if for
whatever reason I was lost with my family, we would sit still for as long as
possible and only then strike out looking for help. Now you want to get into
all the reasons the guy got lost and why he didn't do this or that. You want
to trace a chain of causality back to the big bang. I don't know why the guy
got lost or what preparation he made or where he thought he was going. Arlo
provides a link and some details but are the specifics of this instance what
you are really interested in?

[Dan]
>From what I understand, all they had was baby food. Perhaps you're not up
on 
some of the latest in dried food technology...there's items one can purchase

with a 30 year shelf life. Do you know that the average food supply most US 
cities carry is 3 days? 3 days! What would you and your family do in case of

a disruption? Starve? But I'm getting sidetracked...

....what's wrong with putting together a 'care' package to take with on a 
journey? Especially if you know the weather is bad. Something a person can 
just throw in the trunk or behind the seat. A week's worth of dried food, 
some blankets, extra clothes. Is a person obsessive to think like that? If 
so, I'm guilty.

[Case]
I keep a tool box and a set of jumper cables in the car so I am up for a bit
of planning. But riding around with a truck full of dried food seems like
over kill to me even on vacation or while traveling. When the hurricanes
come through my region I stock up on batteries, canned goods and water but
frankly in a disaster anything can happen and there really is not too much
one can do to avoid danger. In some instances the very things you do to
avoid problems are the source of your undoing. A few preparations are in
order but those are generally dictated by the circumstances.

 [Dan]
So chance and chaos are the same?

[Case]
Now there is a good question. I suppose what unites them is the notion of
probability. I am increasingly of the view that what really sets humanity
apart is its ability to access probability. I think more and more that
causality itself is a question of probability. I think that science,
religion and ethics are all attempts to influence probability in nature and
social relations. I think the MoQ is about probability in this way. I
confess my thoughts on this are not as sharp as I would like them to be but
that is in part because we all usually end up talking about something else.
Nice question though.

[Dan]
Can't seem to help it.

[Case]
My wife is like that. She spends more time avoiding unpleasantness than it
would take to just deal with it when it occurs. I have only recently taken
to locking my car and then only because she complained so much and because I
finally got a car with a push button to lock the whole thing.

I think the fear that motivates one to take all these precautions is worse
that the consequences they aim at avoiding. But that's could be just me. I
have long thought that I suffer from inverse paranoia. This is a seldom
recognized psychological disorder where in the victim believes the world is
conspiring to help them out. We don't have support groups or anything but
most us do not complain or seek a cure.

[Dan]
Is there a choice? You'd rather just give in?

[Case]
I am fast on my feet and meditate on the Serenity Prayer.

> [Case]
>How do you find time to meditate with all that worry and preparation going
on?

[Dan]
No tv.

[Case]
I assume an exception would be in making travel plans you'd check the
weather.