[MD] Probability

[Case]

[Gene]
I just wanted to say I absolutely agree with everything you said in this
post! It is precisely where I stand on the matter. Everything is about
probability. Everything is Possible, nothing is certain. So I prefer to
accept for true things that lead to more interesting ideas, even if I'm
not sure of them

[Case]
Thanks Gene, I have included below a more detailed post on probability. I
made this in response to Ham a week or so ago. He responded with a
question and was apparently scoring it or something. I answered some
questions for him about it and then it died. I guess I won
 Anyway I would
appreciate your thoughts on it. Or anyone else’s thoughts for that matter.

Also I liked your post today on E=MC2. I agree with your assessment about
SQ and DQ being roughly equivalent to matter and energy but that has been
a hard sell around here in the past.

-------------------------------------------------------------

[Ham]
Now I've got two questions for you, Case
For the sake of argument, let's say you are right that "it is all a
probability distribution.

1)  What is it you suppose the probability is DISTRIBUTING?

[Case]
Probability is not DOING anything at all. But if you are seriously
interested it goes like this:

There is only one point in space and time where the probability of
anything is at 100%. That point is NOW, and then it is gone, replaced with
a string of new NOWs. NOW is that point in the present where all of the
wave functions, all of the guess work, all of the coulda-woulda-shouldas
are resolved, everywhere in the universe all at once. NOW transcends space
and time and focuses everything in a singe instant. This happens
continuously.

We as beings have no access to this instant of NOW. It is, in principle,
theoretically, actually and metaphysically beyond our reach. Our sense
data of it, even our mystical connection with it, are limited by the time
it takes a thought to form or a nerve impulse to travel. By our very
nature we are always one step behind. It is limited by the fact that even
looking at it changes it. In this sense "Reality" IS undefined.

Outside of that instant of 100% probability; every other instant, in both
temporal directions, Past and Future can, in principle, be assigned a
likelihood. The future will be thus and so, or the past was like this...
These are estimates of probability because they contain some element of
uncertainty.

Human beings are possessors of the most complex chunks of matter in the
known universe. Through them we are able to store information. I like
computer metaphors so I think of this capability as a temporal buffer.
That is, a place were past events are represented and reconstructed. This
is experience. This capacity allows us to randomly access events from our
pasts and reconstruct models of the future. It is through this process
that we transcend the instant. We explore remembered pasts and speculate
about possible futures.

To speak of how all this came into existence is to ask; if not a
meaningless question, then one that can not be answered. We can and do
speak of the likelihood of this or the likelihood of that. I have a
friend, who reads stuff about the 12th planet and thinks our species has
been manipulated by aliens. I can not say to him, "That is impossible."
But I regard it as highly unlikely
We observe that chaotic systems behave deterministically. No matter what
probabilities are bouncing around they will or have been resolved. What
limits our ability to make accurate prediction based on our temporal
buffers is that ANY probably of less than 100% means uncertainty. The
calculations necessary to predict anything, whatsoever, with absolute
certainty would take longer to make than just waiting it out. This makes
the future determined but unpredictable.

I believe the same can be said about the past. In the case of the past we
have stored information available to make guesses, but the elements of
uncertainty inherent in our recollection make accurate statement about
what has already happened as problematic as our guessing about the future.
The farther you stray from the present the more uncertainties compound.

What we DO in our heads is take such information as is stored there and
use it reduce uncertainty. We make constant estimates of probability and
these estimates guide our actions. This increases the probability that we
will continue to exist. Setting goals and being able to define purposes
for ourselves is a happy byproduct of this.

The fact that we are social beings increases the information available to
us by giving us access the probabilities estimated by virtue of the
experiences recorded within our fellow beings. Verbal and written
languages give us access to information stored not only be people living
but people who died thousands of years ago. The accumulation of this
information and our enhanced access to it are a big help in estimating
probabilities and reducing uncertainty in both temporal directions.

But there is no indication that this capacity exists as a property of
nature outside of ourselves. We can look at the continuum of creatures
living today and see a bit of it in all of them. It takes on an
astonishing variety of forms. But these forms all appear to have developed
in response to the conditions that exist in this region of space and at
this particular time.
I believe that all of this has profound moral implications and that there
is purpose here, but it all arises from, is contained within and is solely
relevant to US.

The problem I see with assigning sentience and purpose to some external,
eternal whatever, is that this takes US off the hook. Whatever, properties
or powers you care to ascribe to God from: Creator, to omniscience, these
are properties and Qualities that WE are assuming more and more every day.
Given Godlike powers what are we going to do with them? To what purpose
should they be put into service?

Just as a side note I find all of this terrifying. As far as yours and
Platt’s concern with the status of the individual, well all of these
estimating and calculating does take place in individual skulls but
without connecting and sharing of data, it really doesn't amount to much.