[MD] Probability

[pholden at davtv.com]

Quoting Case <case at ispots.com>:

> [Gene]
> I just wanted to say I absolutely agree with everything you said in this
> post! It is precisely where I stand on the matter. Everything is about
> probability. Everything is Possible, nothing is certain. So I prefer to
> accept for true things that lead to more interesting ideas, even if I'm
> not sure of them
> 
> [Case]
> Thanks Gene, I have included below a more detailed post on probability. I
> made this in response to Ham a week or so ago. He responded with a
> question and was apparently scoring it or something. I answered some
> questions for him about it and then it died. I guess I won
 Anyway I would
> appreciate your thoughts on it. Or anyone else’s thoughts for that matter.

I wonder, Case, if you could assess the probability that your probability theories
are wrong. Also, since you claim we are always "one step behind" reality and even
that our looking at it changes it, on what basis can you claim that our
knowledge of probabilty is valid? Or don't you? 

Thanks,
Platt

> -------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> [Ham]
> Now I've got two questions for you, Case
> For the sake of argument, let's say you are right that "it is all a
> probability distribution.
> 
> 1)  What is it you suppose the probability is DISTRIBUTING?
> 
> [Case]
> Probability is not DOING anything at all. But if you are seriously
> interested it goes like this:
> 
> There is only one point in space and time where the probability of
> anything is at 100%. That point is NOW, and then it is gone, replaced with
> a string of new NOWs. NOW is that point in the present where all of the
> wave functions, all of the guess work, all of the coulda-woulda-shouldas
> are resolved, everywhere in the universe all at once. NOW transcends space
> and time and focuses everything in a singe instant. This happens
> continuously.
> 
> We as beings have no access to this instant of NOW. It is, in principle,
> theoretically, actually and metaphysically beyond our reach. Our sense
> data of it, even our mystical connection with it, are limited by the time
> it takes a thought to form or a nerve impulse to travel. By our very
> nature we are always one step behind. It is limited by the fact that even
> looking at it changes it. In this sense "Reality" IS undefined.
> 
> Outside of that instant of 100% probability; every other instant, in both
> temporal directions, Past and Future can, in principle, be assigned a
> likelihood. The future will be thus and so, or the past was like this...
> These are estimates of probability because they contain some element of
> uncertainty.
> 
> Human beings are possessors of the most complex chunks of matter in the
> known universe. Through them we are able to store information. I like
> computer metaphors so I think of this capability as a temporal buffer.
> That is, a place were past events are represented and reconstructed. This
> is experience. This capacity allows us to randomly access events from our
> pasts and reconstruct models of the future. It is through this process
> that we transcend the instant. We explore remembered pasts and speculate
> about possible futures.
> 
> To speak of how all this came into existence is to ask; if not a
> meaningless question, then one that can not be answered. We can and do
> speak of the likelihood of this or the likelihood of that. I have a
> friend, who reads stuff about the 12th planet and thinks our species has
> been manipulated by aliens. I can not say to him, "That is impossible."
> But I regard it as highly unlikely
> We observe that chaotic systems behave deterministically. No matter what
> probabilities are bouncing around they will or have been resolved. What
> limits our ability to make accurate prediction based on our temporal
> buffers is that ANY probably of less than 100% means uncertainty. The
> calculations necessary to predict anything, whatsoever, with absolute
> certainty would take longer to make than just waiting it out. This makes
> the future determined but unpredictable.
> 
> I believe the same can be said about the past. In the case of the past we
> have stored information available to make guesses, but the elements of
> uncertainty inherent in our recollection make accurate statement about
> what has already happened as problematic as our guessing about the future.
> The farther you stray from the present the more uncertainties compound.
> 
> What we DO in our heads is take such information as is stored there and
> use it reduce uncertainty. We make constant estimates of probability and
> these estimates guide our actions. This increases the probability that we
> will continue to exist. Setting goals and being able to define purposes
> for ourselves is a happy byproduct of this.
> 
> The fact that we are social beings increases the information available to
> us by giving us access the probabilities estimated by virtue of the
> experiences recorded within our fellow beings. Verbal and written
> languages give us access to information stored not only be people living
> but people who died thousands of years ago. The accumulation of this
> information and our enhanced access to it are a big help in estimating
> probabilities and reducing uncertainty in both temporal directions.
> 
> But there is no indication that this capacity exists as a property of
> nature outside of ourselves. We can look at the continuum of creatures
> living today and see a bit of it in all of them. It takes on an
> astonishing variety of forms. But these forms all appear to have developed
> in response to the conditions that exist in this region of space and at
> this particular time.
> I believe that all of this has profound moral implications and that there
> is purpose here, but it all arises from, is contained within and is solely
> relevant to US.
> 
> The problem I see with assigning sentience and purpose to some external,
> eternal whatever, is that this takes US off the hook. Whatever, properties
> or powers you care to ascribe to God from: Creator, to omniscience, these
> are properties and Qualities that WE are assuming more and more every day.
> Given Godlike powers what are we going to do with them? To what purpose
> should they be put into service?
> 
> Just as a side note I find all of this terrifying. As far as yours and
> Platt’s concern with the status of the individual, well all of these
> estimating and calculating does take place in individual skulls but
> without connecting and sharing of data, it really doesn't amount to much.
> 
> 
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