[MD] Probability

[Case]

[Platt]
> I wonder, Case, if you could assess the probability that your probability
> theories
> are wrong. Also, since you claim we are always "one step behind" reality
> and even
> that our looking at it changes it, on what basis can you claim that our
> knowledge of probabilty is valid? Or don't you?
>
[Case]
I think it has be high probability of being correct but one of the reasons
I posted it was to see if others agree. I believe I have started by making
very few assumption about "the way things are." Gene's comments came in
response to my justification for making one of them: that there is an
external reality at all.

This is merely a sketch of what we can say about such a reality.

As for being "one step behind" I don't see any way around this but, if you
can explain how we have direct apprehension of the physical world I would
love to hear it.


>> -------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> [Ham]
>> Now I've got two questions for you, Case
>> For the sake of argument, let's say you are right that "it is all a
>> probability distribution.
>>
>> 1)  What is it you suppose the probability is DISTRIBUTING?
>>
>> [Case]
>> Probability is not DOING anything at all. But if you are seriously
>> interested it goes like this:
>>
>> There is only one point in space and time where the probability of
>> anything is at 100%. That point is NOW, and then it is gone, replaced
>> with
>> a string of new NOWs. NOW is that point in the present where all of the
>> wave functions, all of the guess work, all of the coulda-woulda-shouldas
>> are resolved, everywhere in the universe all at once. NOW transcends
>> space
>> and time and focuses everything in a singe instant. This happens
>> continuously.
>>
>> We as beings have no access to this instant of NOW. It is, in principle,
>> theoretically, actually and metaphysically beyond our reach. Our sense
>> data of it, even our mystical connection with it, are limited by the
>> time
>> it takes a thought to form or a nerve impulse to travel. By our very
>> nature we are always one step behind. It is limited by the fact that
>> even
>> looking at it changes it. In this sense "Reality" IS undefined.
>>
>> Outside of that instant of 100% probability; every other instant, in
>> both
>> temporal directions, Past and Future can, in principle, be assigned a
>> likelihood. The future will be thus and so, or the past was like this...
>> These are estimates of probability because they contain some element of
>> uncertainty.
>>
>> Human beings are possessors of the most complex chunks of matter in the
>> known universe. Through them we are able to store information. I like
>> computer metaphors so I think of this capability as a temporal buffer.
>> That is, a place were past events are represented and reconstructed.
>> This
>> is experience. This capacity allows us to randomly access events from
>> our
>> pasts and reconstruct models of the future. It is through this process
>> that we transcend the instant. We explore remembered pasts and speculate
>> about possible futures.
>>
>> To speak of how all this came into existence is to ask; if not a
>> meaningless question, then one that can not be answered. We can and do
>> speak of the likelihood of this or the likelihood of that. I have a
>> friend, who reads stuff about the 12th planet and thinks our species has
>> been manipulated by aliens. I can not say to him, "That is impossible."
>> But I regard it as highly unlikely
>> We observe that chaotic systems behave deterministically. No matter what
>> probabilities are bouncing around they will or have been resolved. What
>> limits our ability to make accurate prediction based on our temporal
>> buffers is that ANY probably of less than 100% means uncertainty. The
>> calculations necessary to predict anything, whatsoever, with absolute
>> certainty would take longer to make than just waiting it out. This makes
>> the future determined but unpredictable.
>>
>> I believe the same can be said about the past. In the case of the past
>> we
>> have stored information available to make guesses, but the elements of
>> uncertainty inherent in our recollection make accurate statement about
>> what has already happened as problematic as our guessing about the
>> future.
>> The farther you stray from the present the more uncertainties compound.
>>
>> What we DO in our heads is take such information as is stored there and
>> use it reduce uncertainty. We make constant estimates of probability and
>> these estimates guide our actions. This increases the probability that
>> we
>> will continue to exist. Setting goals and being able to define purposes
>> for ourselves is a happy byproduct of this.
>>
>> The fact that we are social beings increases the information available
>> to
>> us by giving us access the probabilities estimated by virtue of the
>> experiences recorded within our fellow beings. Verbal and written
>> languages give us access to information stored not only be people living
>> but people who died thousands of years ago. The accumulation of this
>> information and our enhanced access to it are a big help in estimating
>> probabilities and reducing uncertainty in both temporal directions.
>>
>> But there is no indication that this capacity exists as a property of
>> nature outside of ourselves. We can look at the continuum of creatures
>> living today and see a bit of it in all of them. It takes on an
>> astonishing variety of forms. But these forms all appear to have
>> developed
>> in response to the conditions that exist in this region of space and at
>> this particular time.
>> I believe that all of this has profound moral implications and that
>> there
>> is purpose here, but it all arises from, is contained within and is
>> solely
>> relevant to US.
>>
>> The problem I see with assigning sentience and purpose to some external,
>> eternal whatever, is that this takes US off the hook. Whatever,
>> properties
>> or powers you care to ascribe to God from: Creator, to omniscience,
>> these
>> are properties and Qualities that WE are assuming more and more every
>> day.
>> Given Godlike powers what are we going to do with them? To what purpose
>> should they be put into service?
>>
>> Just as a side note I find all of this terrifying. As far as yours and
>> Platt’s concern with the status of the individual, well all of these
>> estimating and calculating does take place in individual skulls but
>> without connecting and sharing of data, it really doesn't amount to
>> much.
>>
>>
>>
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