[MD] Probability

[Gene M]

Platt:

> Since you say we don't have access to the "real reality" it seems to me
> anything anybody says about it is pretty much guess work.


Pretty much, yeah. Is that a problem?

Platt:

> No, the real guesswork is in the claim we can never know reality
> because our senses distort it by being "one step behind." Since we can
> never know reality, everything we think we know  becomes pure
> speculation. Not only does this declare Pirsig's criterion of truth,
> "agreement with experience," null and void, but puts metaphysics in the
> same category of gnomes, elves, leprechauns and fairies.


I don't agree at all! Just because we can't Know anything for certain
changes almost nothing. We build an image of reality in our minds based on
how well our own ideas about reality fit in with how Reality actually works.
That's what I've always thought was meant by "agreement with experience."
The only difference I can see is that some believe that their view is Right,
True, Correct, all those things. And others realize that their view of
reality is provisional. I accept truths until they are shown to incorrect or
lacking compared to Reality, and then modify them. What's so crazy about
that?

Ham:

> The problem with probability is that it doesn't explain anything.
> Everything that happens can said to happen because the probability of its
> happening is 100%.  If it had a probability of anything less than 100% it
> wouldn't occur at all.  What does that tell us about its cause or origin?


I think we have very different ideas about what we mean by probability. I'm
just saying that every thing that Can happen, has a probability to happen.
Sure some of them, are very very very close to 100%, like gravity. I can't
say 100% cause you never know! But it's pretty solid that if I drop
something, it'll fall. I believe that has a high probability of being
correct. Most things however simply have a slightly better probability than
others.

Take the detective, trying to re-create events passed on the clues
available. They fit what knowledge they have together into a coherent and
probable pattern, then work with that until some new information doesn't
fit. Then they tear it down and re-organize it all over again. It's all
about the patterns we put our information in. Just like Pirsig's note-cards.

-Gene