[MD] Probability

[Case]

[Ham]
I'm not an engineer, but I did graduate with a B.S. in Biology, a minor in
Chemistry, and some electives in Psychology and Logic.  Nowhere in this
curriculum was there a requirement for the Laws of Probability.  The basic
unit in Biology is the protoplasmic cell; in Chemistry, the elements and
their molecular valences.  (Psychology doesn't seem to claim a basic unit,
and Quantum Physics was not taught in undergraduate courses of the 50s.)

Now I'm not saying that probability doesn't enter into scientists' analysis
of biological processes or chemical reactions.  But I fail to understand how
it can account for, let alone explain, existence or the evolution of life.
Generating "probability factors" isn't creating organic or inorganic
entities any more than betting at the tracks is raising horses.  Where are
the fundamentals of this science, apart from numbers and equations?

I know that you feel the inaccessibility of the "true present" is
significant.  But can you provide a simple example to demonstrate how
probability "explains" the existence of anything in the past or present?

[Case]
The inaccessibility of the present explains in very concrete terms why
Quality is undefined.

Probability gives us an assessment of how well our internal representation
conforms to what is actually in the real world. It also corresponds well to
Pirsig's Static and Dynamic Quality. You seem disturbed about its causal
nature. This is irrelevant since it is not causal. It actually explains how
we perceive and recognize cause and in the sense that you cling to causality
and purpose, it explains why these are unnecessary.

I would point out that it is fairly well defined concept without
modification on my part. It has a specific mathematics attached to it. It is
a fundamental part of everyday life. The baggage it carries with it includes
a rich vocabulary in word, story and song. As far as I am concerned, it can
keep the baggage as it adds value of the term. In fact probability is so
much a part of our everyday life and our very existence; I was more
concerned that this account would seem so obvious as to be insignificant. 

Contrast this with say a term like, I don't know... Essence, which has no
meaningful definition, explains nothing, has no referent in common parlance
and seems to function mostly as a kind of pseudo-philosophical spackling
compound.

As to the role of probability I am not an expert by any means but it strikes
me that the whole point of quantum mechanics is that we can only make
probability statements at the most fundamental level of matter and energy.

In mathematics Gödel's Theorem holds that no closed system can be logically
self contained. This is not the same as probability but it seems very
similar to me. That is, it shows that even within the most rigorous forms of
logic there is a fundamental bit of uncertainty. Probability is nothing if
not a means of assessing uncertainty.

Whether you like it or not evolution is fundamental to Biology and evolution
is all about how various traits in individuals increase the probability a
species will continue.

In psychology, behavioral theory is all about how reinforcement and
punishment effect the probability that specific behaviors will occur.