[MD] Probability

[pholden at davtv.com]

> Quoting Case <case at ispots.com>:

> > [Case]
> > The statement above is not even paradoxical. I am certain beyond a
> > reasonable doubt that nothing is absolutely certain. This refers to too
> > kind of certainty.

What is the difference between being absolutely certain and certain beyond a
reasonable doubt? 

[Platt]
> > >
> > > I did. Birth and death. Then Gene wondered if he was born.
> > 
> > [Case]
> > I ignored response since it did not appeared to have been very well
> > thought out.

How so? Do you wonder if you were born, too?

> > >[Case]
> > >> If you have for example solved the
> > >> “Clever Demons” problem or the “Brain in a Vat” problem, I would love to
> > >> hear your solutions.
> > 
> > [Platt]
> > > Sounds like a couple of fictional problems to me. But I'm game. What are
> > > those problems?
> > 
> > [Case]
> > These are fairly well defined problems in Philosophy. You might try
> > Googleing them. The best fictional example of the brain in a vat problem
> > would be the Matrix. But a simlar example comes up in evolutionary theory
> > in the case of those who hold to the idea that wen God created the earth
> > he included fossiles to confound the wicked. The Clever demoons arguement
> > is found in Descartes. His solution I believe was one the order that God
> > would not let this occur.

I did Google and Wiki both. Nothing. But, as you describe them, they sound
fairy-like fictional, like the Matrix.

> > The only way I can see that you could cling to an idea like absolute
> > certainty is be not thinking about it much.

And I say the same to you, i.e., the only reason you reject absolute certainty is
by not thinking about it much. So, what have we gained?

> > [Case]
> > Because it will just be a matter of beating around the bush. We have no
> > common ground for discussing this.

Well, if you are not certain you're conscious, I see your point about not 
having common ground.

> > In the mean time why don't you go check out the Game of life exercises?
> > You might actually enjoy playing with it.
> > 
> > [Platt]
> > > Since I'm not certain I would, I'll pass for now.
> > 
> > [Case]
> > I am only asking for 15 mins of your time here to show you a concrete
> > example of the kinds of things I have been talking about here. But I guess
> > Gene was right.

How can I play the game when I'm not absolutely certain I have 15 minutes of time? 
I mean, given less than 15 minutes I have other things more important to do.





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