[MD] Probability

[pholden at davtv.com]

Quoting Gene M <boredandunstable at gmail.com>:

> > What is the difference between being absolutely certain and certain beyond
> > a
> > reasonable doubt?
> 
> 
> In one doubt still exists. In the other it does not. Seems like a  pretty
> clear difference.

I thought you (or was it Case) said absolute certainty didn't exist. Here you
are saying it does. 

> How so? Do you wonder if you were born, too?

> I'm serious. Do you actually have a distinct memory of being born?
> If not, how can you be Absolutely Sure it happened. There is still an
> unreasonable doubt that it did not.

If you aren't absolutely certain you were born I really have nothing to add.
I suppose you will live forwever, too. 

> I did Google and Wiki both. Nothing. But, as you describe them, they sound
> > fairy-like fictional, like the Matrix.

> That's the whole thing. If we were in the "The Matrix" or somesuch, there
> would be absolutely no way to empirically demonstrate that fact. It's
> impossible to know the difference between being in The Matrix and the Real
> World. Our senses give us identical information either way. We can never be
> Absolutely Certain about Reality for that reason.

So as far as you are concerned, you are a work of fiction? I think maybe you've
been seeing too many movies.

> Well, if you are not certain you're conscious, I see your point about not
> > having common ground.
 
> This could all be an incredibly lucid dream. If it were, would I know the
> difference? probably not. So I just assume it doesn't matter, and go about
> my life anyway. The only point I am making is that I can't be Absolutely
> Certain I am in fact conscious.

I know. It's becoming more and more obvious to me you really aren't conscious. 

> How can I play the game when I'm not absolutely certain I have 15 minutes of
> > time?
> > I mean, given less than 15 minutes I have other things more important to
> > do.
> 
> C'mon. 15 minutes? You don't have 15 minutes to may understand what it is
> were talking about? Glad to have confirmation that none of this has any
> importance to you, and you have absolutely no intention to try and
> understand where we are coming from.
> Why even discuss this if you've proven you don't give a damn and will never
> even Try to change your mind?

Good point. But since you can't be sure you are conscious and aren't sure that
I'm conscious, I don't see much point in either of us trying to do anything.

-Platt





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