[MD] Probability

[Case]

[Platt]
> I thought you (or was it Case) said absolute certainty didn't exist. Here
> you are saying it does.

[Gene]
I'm saying it's really unlikely it exists. Absolute Certainly is as likely
as me not being born. A snowball's chance in hell, if you will.

[Case]
Platt, "beyond a reasonable doubt" is a legal standard. Every citizen should
know that "beyond a reasonable doubt" is the standard by which we judge our
fellow citizens guilty or innocent. It is a legal standard for Truth. Yet it
acknowledges the impossibility of removing all doubt from a human judgment.
This is a wisdom gained from thousands of years of recorded legal
experience. It is good enough for me.

[Platt]
I did Google and Wiki both. Nothing. But, as you describe them, they sound
fairy-like fictional, like the Matrix.

[Case]
I think you are being disingenuous, Platt. I Googled "brain in a vat" and
got this for the Number one listing: 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain-in-a-vat

If you are having trouble using your web browser perhaps we should start
with that.

Have you seen the Matrix?

This idea goes back at least to Descartes, and is still being argued over by
contemporary philosophers. People respond to stories about it (and there are
many). Average consumers of pop culture can understand the problem and find
it intriguing. I have mentioned before that the same year the Matrix was
released there were two other films on the same theme. Existenz, which was
about computer game designer trapped in her own interactive game. The
Thirteenth Floor was about a team that designs a virtual reality that
contains self aware virtual people.

Speculative fiction like fairytales are among the ways philosophical ideas
are dispersed into the culture. The fact that they are watered down does not
invalidate the significance of the ideas. That they are profound is reason
enough for creating stories and myths around them. You can not flesh them
out if you can not even figure out the kiddy stuff.

Somebody tells you, you can gain significant insight from a movie and a game
and you say:

Either:
 
"I'm conscious, I don't see much point in either of us trying to do
anything."

It is beneath you.

Or:

"I mean, given less than 15 minutes I have other things more important to
do."

A waste of your time.

You have certainly been wasting ours. You should have some of your own saved
up by now.