[MD] Probability

[Gene M]

On 7/22/06, ian glendinning <psybertron at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Sorry Gene, but I can't let this pass ...
>
> The "sun rising tomorrow" stuff is not just a matter of statistical
> probability or faith.
>
> There are "explanatory" models of "why" the sun will rise tomorrow (or
> any day), based on scientific explanations of what a DAY IS.
>
> It's a meta-faith, a meta-belief system. A consistent holistic (or
> consilient, to use the Whewell / Wilson term) system of "faith"
> (understanding) that supports the fact that it will rise tomorrow ...
>
> Barring statistical emergent outcomes of (things we can blame on) the
> Israelis' hob nail boots trampling over a mass of humanity and
> geography, the sun will rise. And we know "why".
>
> Ian


I dunno what you think a scientific model is, but it's basically just a
really precise way of guessing what is gonna happen. At one point scientists
believed that everything could be explained and understood, and that if we
had the right euqations and a complete knowledge of how things are Right
Now, we could determine how everything would be at a later time. However
with the discovery of the uncertainty principle and quantum mechanics, most
scientists have given up the ghost when it comes to determinism. Nothing is
certain, things are only probable. We have a really Really good way to
explain Why the sun comes up, and no one in their right minds seriously
doubts that the sun will continue to do so for several million million more
years. But there is no certainty. Only "beyond a reasonable doubt".

And I don't see what Any of this has to do with faith. I have faith in
science, I have faith in General Relativity. Thus I have faith the sun
willcome up. I have faith in our explanations. It is impossible to Prove a
scientific theory correct, all you do is use it until something proves it
wrong. That's as good as it gets.

Seems like faith works well in the situation.

-Gene