[MD] Probability

[Case]

Ian, Gene, Peter and Joe,

[Ian]
Sorry Gene, but I can't let this pass ...

The "sun rising tomorrow" stuff is not just a matter of statistical
probability or faith.

There are "explanatory" models of "why" the sun will rise tomorrow (or
any day), based on scientific explanations of what a DAY IS.

It's a meta-faith, a meta-belief system. A consistent holistic (or
consilient, to use the Whewell / Wilson term) system of "faith"
(understanding) that supports the fact that it will rise tomorrow ...

Barring statistical emergent outcomes of (things we can blame on) the
Israelis' hob nail boots trampling over a mass of humanity and
geography, the sun will rise. And we know "why".

[Case]
Nothing in the uncertainty of physics or mathematics stands in the way of
"explanatory" models. But even with consilience and determinism you can not
eliminate uncertainty. Even in the case of the sun rising tomorrow. All
sorts of things could happen. Some previously unknown process at the heart
of the sun could result in the sun going Nova. At miniature black hole
traveling at near light speed could collide with the sun. An asteroid could
strike the earth so as to stop the earth's rotation.

But closer to home I could have an aneurysm at any second and die. I don't
think I need to catalog the varieties of quick check-outs the modern age has
spawned. After all you can be working quietly in your office one morning and
an airliner can come flying through the window. 

Believing that the sun will come up tomorrow is an act of pure faith. Any
explanation, reasoned or emotional, is just window dressing.


[Gene}
At one point scientists believed that everything could be explained and
understood, and that if we had the right euqations and a complete knowledge
of how things are Right Now, we could determine how everything would be at a
later time. However with the discovery of the uncertainty principle and
quantum mechanics, most scientists have given up the ghost when it comes to
determinism. Nothing is certain, things are only probable. We have a really
Really good way to explain Why the sun comes up, and no one in their right
minds seriously doubts that the sun will continue to do so for several
million million more years. But there is no certainty. Only "beyond a
reasonable doubt".

[Case]
I would not say that anyone has given up on determinism. Hopefully, we are
just learning to see it differently. In chaos theory determinism still
holds. It is just that the more precisely you want to specify your
prediction the more information you need to be able to calculate. It becomes
expedient to trade precision for clarity. So probability becomes a measure
of how much uncertainty we are able to tolerate. When uncertainty exceeds
tolerance; wars and religions can occur.

In Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee, Dee Brown gives AN account of how many of
the North American tribes responded to European encroachment. Ignoring
politics, what you see is that all of the tribes from the Algonquin to the
Zuni used different strategies; from assimilation to terrorism. The result
was the same. By 1890 almost every tribe was subdued, isolated or
extinguished. In Nevada a spiritual movement sprang up and spread throughout
the tribes at least as far east as the Mississippi. The Paiute prophet
Wovoka promised his followers that if they danced the Ghost Dance, the Earth
itself would roll aside taking the white men with it and leaving the world
fresh for the red man. Dancers would be able to talk to their dead relatives
and help bring about the coming of the new age.

There was a collective spiritual response of peoples who had faced
uncertainty upon uncertainty until the only rational thing to do was resort
to the irrational. Different tribes isolated linguistically and
geographically responded to the message. Despite these differences and in
many cases historic animosities these people were united in a brief moment
of Hope.

In modern times we take pains to make see that our families are well
insured.


[Gene]
And I don't see what Any of this has to do with faith. I have faith in
science, I have faith in General Relativity. Thus I have faith the sun
willcome up. I have faith in our explanations. It is impossible to Prove a
scientific theory correct, all you do is use it until something proves it
wrong. That's as good as it gets.

Seems like faith works well in the situation.

[Case]
Faith inspires Hope and after all what is Hope but an expression of optimism
in the face of uncertainty?


[Peter]
I appreciate Case's trial of new ideas but to say 'Uncertainty is Quality'
does not have meaning for me.

[Case]
Why not?

[Joe]
In the modern esoteric literature of Gurdjieff, Ouspensky, Nicoll that I
have read, structure plays an important role. Pirsig's study of Quality is
important in that list for clarification. IMO the undefined aspect of
quality occurs when levels of structure exist. The lower structure, though a
part of the higher structure does not comprehend the higher structure, and
the higher remains undefined to the lower.

[Case]
I can say as I put much stock in esoteric literature but what does Pirsig
clarify? As I understand him, structure is SQ. I don't see what you mean
about comprehension across structures but higher structures only come into
existence to the extent that uncertainty is reduced in the level below. It
is like fungus growing on a rock. 

[Joe]
For example the statement: 'The sun will rise tomorrow morning' is based in
trust, not probability. Uncertainty in trust destroys trust. I trust he
means what he says., etc.

[Case]
Trust is another word rooted deeply in probability. To have Trust in a
relationship is to introduce SQ. It makes interactions in the relationship
more predictable. We use it to express confidence in our ability depend
about consistency and predictability. In short, yes, Uncertainty destroys
Trust, just as Trust destroys Uncertainty.