[MD] Probability

[Ham Priday]

Case and Peter --

You two sing Chicken Little's lament in perfect harmony.  For those who
don't remember, the original lyrics to the Case & Peter duet go something
like this:

Chicken Little was in the woods one day when an acorn fell on her head.  It
scared her so much she trembled all over.  She shook so hard, half her
feathers fell out.  "Help! Help!" she cried; "The sky is falling!  I have to
go tell the king!"

So she ran in great fright to tell the king.  Along the way she met Henny
Penny.
"Where are you going, Chicken Little?" she asked.  "Oh, help!  The sky is
falling!" said Chicken Little.

"How do you know?"

"I saw it with my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it
fell on my head!"

"This is terrible, just terrible!" said Henny Penny.  "We'd better hurry
up."

So they both ran away as fast as they could.  Soon they met Ducky Lucky.
"Where are you going, Chicken Little and Henny Penny?" asked Duck Lucky.
"The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!  We're going to tell the king!"

"How do you know?" asked Ducky Lucky.  "I saw it with my own eyes, and heard
it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head," said Chicken Little.

"Oh dear, oh dear!  We'd better run!" said Duck Lucky

So they all ran down the road as fast as they could.  Before long they met
Turkey Lurkey strutting back and forth..

"Hello there, Chicken Little, Henny Penny, and Ducky Lucky.  Where are you
all going in such a hurry?, asked Turkey Lurkey"  "We're running for our
lives!  The sky is falling, and we're running to tell the king!" they cried.
"How do you know the sky is falling?" asked Turkey Lurky.

"I saw it with  my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it
fell on my head!" said Chicken Little.  "Oh dear!  I always suspected the
sky would fall someday.  I'd better run with you," said Turkey Lurkey.

So they ran with all their might, until they met Foxy Loxy.  "Well, well,
where are you rushing on such a fine day?" he asked.

Together they cried "Help!  Help!"  It's not a fine day at all.  The sky is
falling, and we're running to tell the king!"

"How do you know the sky is falling?" asked Foxy Loxy.  "I saw it with my
own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head!"
answered Chicken Little.

"I see," said Foxy Loxy.  "Well then, follow me, and I'll show you the way
to the king."

So Foxy Loxy led Chicken Little, Henny Penny, Ducky Lucky, and Turkey Lurkey
across a field and through the woods.  He led them straight to his den, and
they never saw the king to tell him that the sky is falling.

Oh, yes, I did leave out one character along the way.  Let's just say that
Goosey Loosey added nothing to the tale because she was the only one with
enough sense to realize that the sky wasn't falling and refused to join the
others on their wild goose chase.

The moral of this story?  Physical reality is a product of our convictions
that lasts about as long as we have the courage to believe them.  When we
demand certainty, the world is too much with us, and fear overtakes our
values.  Then, like Chicken Little, we lose our bearings and fall prey to
the fox.

Essentially yours,
Ham