[MD] Probability

[Gene M]

On 7/24/06, CRAIGERB at comcast.net <CRAIGERB at comcast.net> wrote:
>
> Gene,
> [I've been on vacation for 3 weeks, so I (& the archives) are a little
> behind in this thread.]
> It seems your argument is:
> 1) We cannot have certainty about sub-atomic particles.
> 2) All reality depends upon sub-atomic particles.
> :. 3) We cannot have certainty about reality.
> Firstly, even if we cannot currently have certainty about sub-atomic
> particles, it doesn't follow that we never will be able to.
> Secondly, if I shine a flashlight & I'm not certain about the sub-atomic
> components of the light, it doesn't follow that I'm not sure about what I'm
> illuminating.
> Craig
>

It's true that it's not Certain that we will never be certain about
sub-atomic particles. But right now it seems very very likely that we can
never be certain about them. Like I said, it's not a technological problem.
It's a problem of the very nature of the universe and how it works. To
observe a particle, requires forcing it to interact with another particle.
That's how observation works. You can't observe something if it does not
emit or reflect particles. So to observe a single particle, requires
upsetting that particle. There does not seem to be any getting around it.

But that's just it, everything you see, is brought to your eyes by photons.
You're note just not sure about the particles of the light, your not sure
about the light at all! I am confident about the macro sized objects I
interact with, because none of them has of yet acted in a bizarre way. But I
simply do not rule out the possiblity of it happening. Someday Gravity could
simply reverse. For no apparent reason, and the entire law of general
relativity would have to be re-written to explain it. It Could happen, it's
just not likely.

Certainty is silly. Uncertainty is likely. I don't see where the problem
lies.

We are essentially made up of belief. All the things we "know" and "think"
are nothing more than beliefs we hold. Transient, and based only on the
Reality we know as of now.
Believe it.

-Gene