[MD] Predictions

[Robert Robinson]

[Platt, 11/15]
   
  Whether it's the impact of global warming, bird flu, or oil reserves,
experts differ. Predictions are always dicey.
   
  ...Well, on these 3 issues, scientific thought is variable; has not become a consensus. Random probabilities are embedded within the science and scientific data.
  However, in areas like these where the downside is very, very bad. European policymakers, view the scattered data set; act by following the "precautionary principal" (I am told). Best to err on the side of conservative legal-social guidance. Government bodies in the USA being more money influenced have a tendency to throw caution to the wind, and hope for the best.
   
  If things turn out badly. Policy reviews trigger finger pointing and noting the nearly perennial division of opinion; allows everyone to cover their arse.
  Robbie


Ant McWatt <antmcwatt at hotmail.co.uk> wrote:
  On November 15th, Platt mentioned:

>WASHINGTON - Far from being a nearly exhausted resource, the world's
>oil reserves are three times bigger than what some popular estimates
>state, and peak global oil production is still about a quarter-century
>away, according to a new study by Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian
>Daniel Yergin.

I assume Yergin was referring to olive oil? If not, what were we doing in 
Iraq? Touring the area for potential golf course sites? As I said before 
whatever the oil reserves are, it's a moot point because the environment 
almost certainly can't sustain much more carbon emissions anyway!

>Whether it's the impact of global warming, bird flu, or oil reserves,
>experts differ. Predictions are always dicey.

No they're not. Some predictons are far better than others! If I predict 
that you will post another e-mail to this forum I think that would be an 
extremely safe "non-dicey" prediction.

Though feel free to prove me wrong!

Best wishes,

Anthony.

.

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