[MD] Global Warming: Science or Politics?

[Squonkriff at aol.com]

Quoting Squonkriff at aol.com:

> Dear Platt,
> May i ask you  an additional question please regarding this issue?
>  
> The  background:
> That the Earth's climate is and has been, over  geological  time, thermally 
> fluctuating seems to be broadly agreed  upon.
> However, the preconditions for thermal fluctuation (TF) are  disputed:
> 1. Natural Solar systemic cycles.
> 2.  Technology.
> Assuming TF is preconditioned by the relationship between  Earth's orbit 
and  
> the Sun over geological time (1), then  technological influences (2) may be 
> ruled  out.
>   
> Here is my question:
> How may we be sure that present TF is not  being catastrophically enhanced  
by 
> technological  influences:
> 3. 1 + 2. ?

For the same reason we  can't be  sure that solar activity won't bring on 
a period of global cooling, as was  widely predicted by scientists in the 
70's.

Regards,
Platt
 
Mark 20-02-07: Hi Platt,
Thank you.
I don't feel you have addressed my question.
My question asks if technology may be enhancing TF.
You state the direction of TF cannot be reliably predicted by science  and 
site an example from the 70's.
Points:
1. The 70's scientific prediction of global cooling is based on the  same 
science you cite as criteria for accepting the validity of TF in the  first place.
You remind me TF is a valid empirical observation and  then bring into 
question an extrapolation from the same empirical  observations which display cyclic 
behaviour over geological time which may  indicate we are over due for ice 
age conditions.
Substituting the term, 'prediction' for 'extrapolation' may suggest  science 
is on a par with astrology which i feel would be a mistake.
2. Therefore, science was and is correct in its extrapolations; the next  ice 
age is over due but don't hold your breath because it may not even begin for  
thousands of years as observed in the geological cycles.
3. Non of this addresses my question unfortunately, because there is no  
previous data concerning the effects of an Industrialised Global civilisation to  
observe and extrapolate.
4. To sum up:
a. My question concerns how we may deal with that which is as yet not  fully 
understood.
b. Your response deals with that which is fully understood.
 
Please feel free to have another go Platt.
Best,
Mark