[MD] Alternatives to the scientific method

Fri Jul 27 08:22:04 PDT 2007

yup seems to be all there, 
I think for my "limits conception" I had in mind plotting a graph of damage done to hypothesis/rate of modifications required, against number of experiments performed. As the process should be iterative its going to be an inverse exponential function and the line will at some point approach asymptote. I concede of course that its implicitly an unstable position though and any new idea can throw you right back to before the knee. 

Jos

> -----Original Message-----
> From: moq_discuss-bounces at lists.moqtalk.org
> [mailto:moq_discuss-bounces at lists.moqtalk.org]On Behalf Of ian
> glendinning
> Sent: 27 July 2007 15:21
> To: moq_discuss at moqtalk.org
> Subject: Re: [MD] Alternatives to the scientific method
> 
> 
> Jos, Ham, whoever ...
> 
> Ham I'd never seen you as one of these all or nothing people. You are
> being very unscientific, by in any meaning of the word.
> 
> (Out on a limb ? Before I go on, the thesis expressed, is actually
> Nick Maxwell's - philosopher of science at University College London,
> I posted an essay and links on the subject - Is Science Neurotic ?)
> 
> As to grounds for the claim that "the 1,2,3,4 process is the only
> basis for science" is itself an untestable hypothesis ... that's easy.
> You find me any test for it that has been conceived, proposed, or
> executed, anywhere ever ... have a go yourself. That doesn't mean it's
> wrong, just that it's not a very scientific hypothesis, if it's not
> testable. The burden is on disproof, failing an empirical test, that's
> what the process says.
> 
> As to whether science has been a very successful enterprise so far,
> and the 1,2,3,4 process a successful part of that. Well yes, I never
> said it hadn't, and neither does Nick, but you're using the "sun will
> rise tomorrow" argument.  Pure induction, generalising from many
> specific cases, but that's not part of the 1&2 must lead to 3&4 story.
> 
> 1,2,3,4 is not necessarily wrong, it's just unprovable, and not
> necessarily the whole story. Alternative proposal ... also easy.
> First, let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. The 1,2,3,4
> process is here to stay, its a well tried and tested working
> assumption that it works most cases so far. We should only modify,
> improve, evolve it, not reject it.
> 
> Second what do we need to add ? Clearly we need to look at those cases
> where it doesn't appear to be working ... the classic quantum cases
> and more ... and there we'd be getting into realms of conjecture
> beyond any of our current expertise ... (which we can come back to)
> ... Nick's book has a number of prescriptions ... which involve
> "values" - being honest about what we "should be aiming for" ... which
> is why I reference him in the MoQ context.
> 
> Jos' proposed re-statement of 1,2,3,4 actually illustrates the problem
> ... "until nothing else can be conceived of" ... ie It's actually
> limited only by where the scientists in question draw their conceptual
> lines - in terms of the hypotheses and tests, and the metaphors that
> relate them ... eg how the proposed test relates to the hypothesis
> itself ... it's possible to conceive of a hypotheis which is highly
> abstract and metaphorical, beyond the realms of everyday
> phenomenology, and not necessarily conceive of how a "real life" test
> would relate to it ... the gap between 1&2 and 3&4.
> 
> Not quite sure where Ham was going in his orginal argument ... other
> than his own flavour of essentialism again ... but Jos, I'd be
> interested if you at least accept the main point here ...
> 
> Ian
> 
> On 7/27/07, Laycock, Jos (OSPT) <Jos.Laycock at offsol.gsi.gov.uk> wrote:
> > Ian --
> > >
> > > > I was not referring to the hypothesis, but the four step
> > > process itself;
> > > > that is presumed common sense too, but unfounded and untestable
> > > > in itself. (A meta-problem)
> >
> > Ham
> >
> > What grounds do you have for this claim?  And what would 
> Ian Glendinning
> > propose as a more efficacious alternative to the scientific method?
> >
> > Me:
> >
> > Ham, I think that by asking that question you miss your own 
> opportunity to even try and come up with something, would you 
> like to join Ian out on his limb and see if anything springs to mind?
> >
> > To re-state it:
> >
> > 1)Propose an explanatory hypothesis to describe the 
> operation of a given system,
> > 2)Invent experiments that are potentially confounding of 
> that hypothesis and test it to destruction.
> > 3)Repeat steps 1 & 2 iteratively until satisfied that no 
> further potentially confounding experiments can be conceived of.
> > 4)Write down your conclusions and show them to some other 
> scientists.
> >
> > Seems reasonable enough, but the issues are:
> > Why look at that particular system?
> > Why test these particular hypotheses?
> > What defines the operational parameters of the system? - 
> and further,
> > When science by its nature makes a requirement of 
> impartiality, how do you ensure that you pursue hypothesis 
> formulation with equal zeal as experimental investigation? 
> Its like asking a lawyer to be defence and prosecution at the 
> same time.
> >
> > So, enough negativity then, lets have some suggestions,
> > Mine is as follows:
> >
> >
> > "Test everything"
> > Random/Chaotic hypothesis formulations are made by a 
> supercomputer SC1 based on a dataset of all available data. 
> These are constantly "tested" by an adversarial supercomputer 
> SC2, and the results of SC2 are fed back to SC1 as further 
> information on which to base new hypotheses.
> > Communications between computers 1 & 2 is monitored by 3rd 
> independent supercomputer which maps the iterations and 
> extrapolates from the developing patterns to predict end 
> points. These are also fed back to SC1, and the 
> communications between SC3 and SC1 are monitored and mapped 
> by you guessed it SC4 etc.....
> >
> > The logical operations of SC2, 3 and 4 etc... need to be 
> defined and I suggest using a further independent 
> supercomputer to use genetic algorithms to define the logic 
> of the other computers pragmatically from the results of 
> their own early experiments, constantly refreshing them with 
> "new best logics" as it refines them.
> >
> > So the whole thing would create layers of patterns of 
> information, and define sets of pragmatic rules to operate at 
> each level, generating no answers at all, but instead setting 
> out the available data in one large ordered pattern allowing 
> an observer to......
> >
> > oh.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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