[MD] Don't be a turkey

[118]

Hi Steven,
Thanks for the question.  It would all depend on how one is using the
MoQ.  Many seem to be waiting for slaughter.
Cheers,
Mark

On Tue, May 3, 2011 at 7:41 AM, Steven Peterson
<peterson.steve at gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi All,
>
>
> NasSim Taleb:
> "My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality
> of their knowledge too seriously and those who don’t have the guts to
> sometimes say: I don’t know...." (Reminds me of Socrates)
>
> The Problem of Induction or why experience may have a negative value
> for knowledge...
>
>  "Consider a turkey that is fed every day for 1000 days. Every single
> feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of
> life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race
> "looking out for its best interests," as a politician would say. On
> the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something
> unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of
> belief."
>
> Consider the 999th feeding. "What can a turkey learn about what is in
> store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps,
> but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that
> "little less" that may make all the difference."
>
> Our confidence in our belief increases as we encounter more and more
> evidence confirming our original hypothesis.
>
> "Consider that the turkey's experience may have, rather than no value,
> a negative value. It learned from observation, as we are all advised
> to do (hey, after all, this is what is believed to be the scientific
> method). Its confidence increased as the number of friendly feedings
> grew, and it felt increasingly safe even though the slaughter was more
> and more imminent. Consider that the feeling of safety reached its
> maximum when the risk was at the highest!"
>
> Does the MOQ help us not be turkeys?
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