[MD] Choosing Chance

[Krimel]

[Arlo] > I see "chance" as probability, yes. I contrast this with
"certainty". 

[Craig]. 
'Chance' is what philosophers call a "weasel word"-- 
it changes meaning as you need it to. 
Probability ranges from 0 (impossible) to 100 (certain). 
So "probability cannot contrast with certainty". 
If there is no chance of something, then its probability = 0, 
so probability cannnot be chance either. 
What you need for choice is "logical possibility". 
For me to choose between vanilla & broccoli ice cream, 
it must be logically possible for me to choose broccoli. 
But if I would never choose broccoli, it doesn't mean my 
choice of vanilla is not free. 

[Krimel]
Notice that both 0 and 100% probability are certainties. They represent
Never and Always. Chance is a way of talking about everything in between. We
live in the realm of chance and factoring of odds. We don't live long enough
to have much to say for certain about Always or Never.

As for the "choice" of broccoli or vanilla:

"We dispose of free will in the way that the American divine of the 18th
century Jonathan Edwards did. He said, 'We believe in free will because we
know about our behavior but not about its causes.' Of course it is the
object of a science of behavior to discover causes and once you have found
those causes there is less you need to attribute to an internal act of will
and eventually I think you need to attribute nothing to it."
- B.F. Skinner