[MD] Choosing Chance

Arlo Bensinger ajb102 at psu.edu
Wed Jan 20 12:55:13 PST 2010


[Craig]
'Chance' is what philosophers call a "weasel word".

[Arlo]
Maybe its what you would call a weasel word.

[Craig]
Probability ranges from 0 (impossible) to 100 (certain). So 
"probability cannot contrast with certainty".

[Arlo]
Sure it can, and it does. I would not contrast "impossible" with 
"certain", if anything I agree that a good contrast "certainty" would 
be "uncertainty"... which entails "probability".

[Craig]
For me to choose between vanilla & broccoli ice cream, it must be 
logically possible for me to choose broccoli. But if I would never 
choose broccoli, it doesn't mean my choice of vanilla is not free.

[Arlo]
Your choice is not "free" is some outside agent or force coerces you 
into choosing vanilla. In the absence of this, you may THINK you 
might never choose broccoli, but the fact remains that there must 
exist some amount of probability for that to occur, if you choice is 
truly "free".





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