[MD] The need for quality

Tue Sep 12 14:10:06 PDT 2017

Only a quick reaction today; some other things came up.

snip
"They actually do closely predict reality, nature does display patterns. It
may seem odd that there is a level of predictability to our reality but
there is. "
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I agree for a part.But keep in mind that truths like this are conditional.
The sun comes up , the sun goes down,for millions of years,day after day,so
it will be a good 'assumption' to 'predict' that it will do so tomorrow.But
is it?,..
or was there a flaw when the dino's died out,at previous impacts of
unprovable
meteorites-strikes?, will de sun set tomorrow,or shall we wake up in a
nuclear winter?. What if the sun becomes a supernovae?.......

Is the predictability a conditional assumtion?,or should it be a carved in
stone
thruth, uniquely and uniformly tied to the fact?

Are there models outside antropology using statistics to predict
morality,or explaining morality by the grace of math?. can i doubt it? if
we take  a value based philosophy can we take it for sure Cristian morality
is acceptable?.

what if i superpose virtue or betternes,goodness,fitness in stead of
quality?

I had no idea you guys were that clever btw, Mr chu is a very strong
analitical
thinker.Wes is very wide spectrum.top dollar.

2017-09-12 20:06 GMT+02:00 WES STEWART <wesstt at shaw.ca>:

> Hello Ardie;
>
> They actually do closely predict reality, nature does display patterns. It
> may seem odd that there is a level of predictability to our reality but
> there is. Halloween is approaching next month tell me Ardie, do we normally
> get a few children that show up at 5:00 PM then increases in visits and
> peaks then falls off around 8:00 PM. It forms a bell curve, upper control
> limit, average and lower control limits.
>
> How about average male heights, female heights follow the same pattern,
> sure there are giants and dwarfs but this is due to special causes. At Bell
> labs they were used to take measurements, in a factory setting, for
> example, the machining of drive shafts. When Shewhart and Deming tried to
> target a specific width for a drive shaft lets say 1.1513 inches the more
> wilder the measurements became. They wanted close tolerances of the shaft
> inside a bearing, less play, less clunky, longer life and higher quality of
> a machine. When they tried to target 1.1513 by making adjustments they
> measured 1.2517, 1.0512.
>
> When they decided not to aim for a target standard and just let the
> experienced worker do his work, they measured tolerances in a run of twenty
> drive shafts for example from 1.1508 to 1.1523. They called this common
> cause variation, the best tools with the best machine and an experienced
> machinist produced these results. They would take measurements off the
> assembly line for a run of twenty, if any measurement was beyond the common
> cause variation, the assembly line would shut down.
>
> They would investigate why it has fallen outside of the control limits;
> poorly trained machinist, worn tools, worn bearings on the machine tools
> and then they would fix these problems and start up the assembly line and
> take measurements once again. Deming was in charge of quality during World
> War II and trained managers and engineers of munition, aircraft, vehicle,
> and other war factories. The Japanese Society of Engineers claimed this was
> one of the reasons they lost World War II, American war production quality
> was vastly superior to theirs.
>
>
> From: "Adrie Kintziger" <parser666 at gmail.com>
> To: "moq discuss" <moq_discuss at moqtalk.org>
> Sent: Tuesday, September 12, 2017 10:37:36 AM
> Subject: Re: [MD] The need for quality
>
> Hi, all , Wes.
>
> I took a snip of your proposal/story
>
> "
>
> I will build a story, that gives you an idea of Deming, and how his
> philosophy enhances Pirsig, and how Pirsig's philosophy enhances Deming.
> This is a simple story.
>
> The story begins with let us say; I am a new quality /safety manager for a
> company with 500 employees that work outdoors.
> A senior manager comes to me and tells me the workers injury compensation
> payments are too high. He tells me to do something about lowering injuries.
> He also adds its costing him on around $3000 dollars per injury, because an
> employee sits on average 4 days before recovering from their injury.
>
> I have some statistical data of injuries from the previous 36 months. It
> appears that ankle injuries are the most frequently occurring injuries. I
> add up the ankle injuries for the 36 months, I then divide by 36 and come
> up with a number of 41. So on average this organization has 41 ankle sprain
> or fractures that occur every month.
>
> I want to do something because it is a moral thing; lowering that average
> will also reduce the number of people who suffer pain and injury each
> month. Would someone say my moral thinking is subjective? A psychopath
> might.
>
> At this point I calculate standard deviation of 1, and come up with an
> upper limit of 47 ankle injuries and a lower limit of 35, I calculate
> standard deviation of 2 upper limit 53, lower limit of 29. I calculate
> standard deviation of 3 upper limit of 59 and a lower limit 23.
>
> Next month I can forecast the ankle injury rate with 99% certainty will
> fall between 59 and 23. I can also say that 68% of the time it will fall
> between a standard deviation of 1, from 47 to 35.
>
> Pirsig would call this a static pattern, Deming would say it is in a state
> of statistical process control. Pirsig would say it's a system that will
> not change unless there is "dynamic quality" added to it. Deming would say
> there has to be some "special cause" variation in order for change to
> happen, the static pattern he see's is "common cause" variation, it's a
> normal distribution curve, it is a normal pattern that occurs in nature.
>
> Let's say I do some research and visit 50 employees out in the field, and
> startled to find that 48 of them wear low cut running shoes, only two of
> them were wearing something with good solid ankle support
>
> I go to several work boot suppliers, ask them for advice and I am impressed
> with one of them having so much knowledge on what good ankle support is in
> a workboot. What's average better and best, in both comfort and support,
> then he shows me the longest lasting, high quality boot with those
> attributes.
>
> At a company meeting, I explain my rational and ask upper management to
> reimburse every employee for boot purchase from that one supplier. I add in
> that boots are personal protective equipment, and OHS regulations require
> us to reimburse our employees for this. Maybe there is a large debate,
> maybe the accountant says, "the guys out in the field are all idiots, they
> just have to be more careful." Maybe at the end of the meeting the CEO
> steps in and says "We have not been able to lower that rate in 3 years, in
> spite of threats of termination and terminations, we have lost lots of our
> most productive employees." He then agrees to go with my recommendations.
>
>
> I have done something to change the system, we wanted to see that average
> of 41 ankle injuries per month drop, and if we make the next month
> measurement and find, that it is below 23 (standard deviation of 3) , it
> may mean something. It may mean that the process of how ankle injuries
> occurr is no longer a stable process, something has changed in the system.
> As more people purchase boots we see, it drops to 20 then the following
> month it goes to 15, thats a trend, because in the past 3 years it never
> went below 23. Thats improvement in the quality of the working environment
> for employees out in the field, thats something that is measureable.
>
> I measure the ankle injury rate for another 36 months, after the changes,
> and see that the average is now 13 with the Upper control limit is 21 and
> the lower control limit is now 0, thats real, we can see those numbers. Now
> that is an improvement in the quality of the working environment of 68%,
> specific to ankle injuries.
>
> Maybe the CEO talks with me about those 0 ankle injury months, and tells me
> upper management has decided that they want them all to be 0 ankle injury
> months. I try to explain to him about human beings and variation. "Common
> cause variation in rain, wind, heat, terrain, stress, fatigue, having a
> baby, and worried about keeping your job all fix those static patterns of
> quality, from 0 to 21. Even the support of an employees direct manager
> affect those numbers along with cooperation and teamwork from fellow
> employees. Threats of firings or lay-off's do not help, after all, who can
> think clearly when they are agitated, because distractions cause those
> ankle sprain injuries."
>
> I tell him to expect the average to remain the same around 13. I tell him
> the 0-21 variation from month to month is a normal distribution pattern
> that is seen in nature. I state to him matter of factly, that business men
> cannot really make demands on nature or science to change. Both safety and
> quality will always see these normal distribution patterns, and for that
> reason it will never reach 0 every month. I say to him that I will try to
> come up with some other ways to improve the quality of the working
> environment for our employees, but expect it not to move until I come up
> with some ideas and we implement those changes......
>
> -------------------------------
>
> (Adrie)
> This is not so very different from the story earlier on,in wich case you
> proposed a mechanism swinging around a hinge of variables.
>
> I did re-read it several times to reconsider, but i have to come back to my
> first comment.It is not critisism but common sense.
> I can tell the story with fewer words and lesser vocabulary pitch.But it is
> an example to make something clear.Not to ridicule you.
>
> Ok, lets say a guy comes at the banks of the Amazon, finding a statician at
> the waterline collecting statistical depth table's.As he likes to go to the
> other side,he asks to the statician,"can i safely pass the stream here?",
> ...Yeah you really can the statician says, the average depth here is around
> knee depth only.So the dude starts walking to the other side,only to drown
> in a part of the river that has some greater depth.Statistically very
> normal of course.
>
> What i can see in your model , Wes , is that you create story's like this
> to
> make something clear by adding complexity to the model.If i compare my
> example with yours, the case is the same, but you will introduce say like
> the speed of the stream, the position of the rocks in the riverbed,the
> rotation of the earth,the lenght of the guy, can he swim or not?;;;;;etc,
> but!, models like this
> wil tell us nothing, at all,about philosophy.They fail to predict
> reality.Or morality.
>
>
>
> 2017-09-11 5:44 GMT+02:00 WES STEWART <wesstt at shaw.ca>:
>
> >
> > Hello Dan, Andrew and X-Acto;
> > I have responded to your question towards the end X-Acto.
> > Thanks for the response Ardie;
> >
> > Yes these are old ideas, concepts that are approaching 90 years, yet they
> > still work for quality.
> >
> > I will build a story, that gives you an idea of Deming, and how his
> > philosophy enhances Pirsig, and how Pirsig's philosophy enhances Deming.
> > This is a simple story.
> >
> > The story begins with let us say; I am a new quality /safety manager for
> a
> > company with 500 employees that work outdoors.
> > A senior manager comes to me and tells me the workers injury compensation
> > payments are too high. He tells me to do something about lowering
> injuries.
> > He also adds its costing him on around $3000 dollars per injury, because
> an
> > employee sits on average 4 days before recovering from their injury.
> >
> > I have some statistical data of injuries from the previous 36 months. It
> > appears that ankle injuries are the most frequently occurring injuries. I
> > add up the ankle injuries for the 36 months, I then divide by 36 and come
> > up with a number of 41. So on average this organization has 41 ankle
> sprain
> > or fractures that occur every month.
> >
> > I want to do something because it is a moral thing; lowering that average
> > will also reduce the number of people who suffer pain and injury each
> > month. Would someone say my moral thinking is subjective? A psychopath
> > might.
> >
> > At this point I calculate standard deviation of 1, and come up with an
> > upper limit of 47 ankle injuries and a lower limit of 35, I calculate
> > standard deviation of 2 upper limit 53, lower limit of 29. I calculate
> > standard deviation of 3 upper limit of 59 and a lower limit 23.
> >
> > Next month I can forecast the ankle injury rate with 99% certainty will
> > fall between 59 and 23. I can also say that 68% of the time it will fall
> > between a standard deviation of 1, from 47 to 35.
> >
> > Pirsig would call this a static pattern, Deming would say it is in a
> state
> > of statistical process control. Pirsig would say it's a system that will
> > not change unless there is "dynamic quality" added to it. Deming would
> say
> > there has to be some "special cause" variation in order for change to
> > happen, the static pattern he see's is "common cause" variation, it's a
> > normal distribution curve, it is a normal pattern that occurs in nature.
> >
> > Let's say I do some research and visit 50 employees out in the field, and
> > startled to find that 48 of them wear low cut running shoes, only two of
> > them were wearing something with good solid ankle support
> >
> > I go to several work boot suppliers, ask them for advice and I am
> > impressed with one of them having so much knowledge on what good ankle
> > support is in a workboot. What's average better and best, in both comfort
> > and support, then he shows me the longest lasting, high quality boot with
> > those attributes.
> >
> > At a company meeting, I explain my rational and ask upper management to
> > reimburse every employee for boot purchase from that one supplier. I add
> in
> > that boots are personal protective equipment, and OHS regulations require
> > us to reimburse our employees for this. Maybe there is a large debate,
> > maybe the accountant says, "the guys out in the field are all idiots,
> they
> > just have to be more careful." Maybe at the end of the meeting the CEO
> > steps in and says "We have not been able to lower that rate in 3 years,
> in
> > spite of threats of termination and terminations, we have lost lots of
> our
> > most productive employees." He then agrees to go with my recommendations.
> >
> >
> > I have done something to change the system, we wanted to see that average
> > of 41 ankle injuries per month drop, and if we make the next month
> > measurement and find, that it is below 23 (standard deviation of 3) , it
> > may mean something. It may mean that the process of how ankle injuries
> > occurr is no longer a stable process, something has changed in the
> system.
> > As more people purchase boots we see, it drops to 20 then the following
> > month it goes to 15, thats a trend, because in the past 3 years it never
> > went below 23. Thats improvement in the quality of the working
> environment
> > for employees out in the field, thats something that is measureable.
> >
> > I measure the ankle injury rate for another 36 months, after the changes,
> > and see that the average is now 13 with the Upper control limit is 21 and
> > the lower control limit is now 0, thats real, we can see those numbers.
> Now
> > that is an improvement in the quality of the working environment of 68%,
> > specific to ankle injuries.
> >
> > Maybe the CEO talks with me about those 0 ankle injury months, and tells
> > me upper management has decided that they want them all to be 0 ankle
> > injury months. I try to explain to him about human beings and variation.
> > "Common cause variation in rain, wind, heat, terrain, stress, fatigue,
> > having a baby, and worried about keeping your job all fix those static
> > patterns of quality, from 0 to 21. Even the support of an employees
> direct
> > manager affect those numbers along with cooperation and teamwork from
> > fellow employees. Threats of firings or lay-off's do not help, after all,
> > who can think clearly when they are agitated, because distractions cause
> > those ankle sprain injuries."
> >
> > I tell him to expect the average to remain the same around 13. I tell him
> > the 0-21 variation from month to month is a normal distribution pattern
> > that is seen in nature. I state to him matter of factly, that business
> men
> > cannot really make demands on nature or science to change. Both safety
> and
> > quality will always see these normal distribution patterns, and for that
> > reason it will never reach 0 every month. I say to him that I will try to
> > come up with some other ways to improve the quality of the working
> > environment for our employees, but expect it not to move until I come up
> > with some ideas and we implement those changes.
> >
> > Maybe the accountant meets me in the hallway moments later and says, " We
> > can have a 0 ankle injury month, and if you cannot do it every month
> maybe
> > we should hire a quality/ safety manager that can."
> >
> > Hello X-Acto, I will keep to Pirsigs or Demings description of a SYSTEM,
> > because both of them talk about corruption, you can review Pirsigs full
> > description in Chapter 8.
> > Pirsig is extremely artful in his description because he has a Doctorate
> > in Creative Writing; Deming a physicist, mathematician, and statistician,
> > sometimes outwardly states they are corrupted by their greed. I think
> that
> > the systems theorists description that you sent me was well thought out
> of
> > what it should be; but naive as to what happens in real life, a SYSTEM
> can
> > create the Iraq war and unknowingly produce an ISIS, but was it really an
> > intelligent move?
> >
> > Here is some of what Pirsig states in Chapter 8;
> >
> > "But to tear down a factory or revolt against a government....because it
> > is a system is to attack effects rather than causes, and as long as the
> > attack is against effects, no change is possible. The true system, the
> real
> > system is the construction of systemic thought itself, rationality of
> > thought, and if a factory is torn down but the rationality of thought
> which
> > produced it is left standing, then that rationality will simply produce
> > another factory."
> >
> > "If a revolution destroys a systematic government, but the same
> systematic
> > patterns of thought are left intact,
> > then those same patterns will repeat themselves in succeeding
> > governments." From Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert
> > Pirsig
> >
> > In this imaginary story "the real system is the construction of systemic
> > thought itself, rationality of thought" of the capitalist system
> > which is based wholly on greed and self interest, which is a part of
> > government just as much as it is part of business. The rationality of the
> > CEO and the accountant in this made up story is the real system, "the
> > construction of systemic thought itself, rationality of thought",is not
> > science its disturbed and biased and will always make poor decisions
> > concerning quality because of self interest, self importance and greed.
> >
> > From: "X Acto" <xacto at rocketmail.com>
> > To: "moq discuss" <moq_discuss at moqtalk.org>
> > Sent: Saturday, September 9, 2017 11:23:21 AM
> > Subject: Re: [MD] The need for quality
> >
> > Sent from my iPhone
> >
> > > On Sep 7, 2017, at 11:35 AM, Andrew Chu <andrew.chu at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > From: "WES STEWART" <wesstt at shaw.ca>
> > > To: "moq discuss" <moq_discuss at moqtalk.org>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, September 6, 2017 10:15:27 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [MD] The need for quality
> > >
> > > Hell Dan and All;
> > >
> > > I get a lot of my philosophy of quality, not from Pirsig but from
> > William Edwards Deming. It was back in the twenties when Walter Shewhart
> > and Deming were searching for ways to improve the Quality of transmission
> > lines at Bell Labs. They had defined Quality as a SYSTEM that is in a
> state
> > of continuous improvement. Shewhart and Deming looked at all SYSTEMs then
> > used their intellect or reason to search for ways to improve the SYSTEM.
> > >
> > > Martin Luther King also used his intellect for ways to improve the
> > SYSTEM, in which he paid the ultimate price that was delivered from
> > Biologically dominated human beings.
> > >
> > Ron interjects:
> > Hello Wes,Dan, All,
> > I've been following the thread off and on and I was curious about how Wes
> > defined the term "SYSTEM".
> > In system theory it is defined as
> > an entity with interrelated and interdependent parts; it is defined by
> its
> > boundaries and it is more than the sum of its parts (subsystem).
> > Positive growth and adaptation of a system depend upon how well the
> system
> > is adjusted with its environment, and systems often exist to accomplish a
> > common purpose (a work function) that also aids in the maintenance of the
> > system or the operations may result in system failure.
> > With the goal being isotelesis.
> > the intelligent direction of effort toward the achievement of an end.
> >
> >
> >
> >
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